Friday, October 23, 2009

Weekend Box Office overview: The Horror! The Horror!

As we get closer to All Hallow's Eve, the movie studios continue to release more horror-flavored product to an already-overcrowded market. Two new horror films will hit the market and one will continue its roll out to theaters nationwide. Add two non-horror entries and a small reissue for an animated Halloween favorite, and you have a little something for everyone at cinemas this weekend.

Much like the "Friday the 13th", "Halloween" and "Nightmare on Elm Street" franchises, it appears that nothing can stop the "Saw" series from putting out new entries every year at this time. The 2004 original was a modest hit, but the second and third entries were even bigger successes. While the fourth and fifth films have opened big, they were a distant memory by their third weekend. Still, all of these films cost close to nothing to make and market. As long as they remain profitable, Lionsgate will continue to crank them out like clockwork (part seven is already in the works). Opening on over 3,000 screens this weekend, "Saw VI" should gross (no pun intended) around $22 million before making a quick dash to the video store.

"Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant" is the other new horror film in town, which will provide horror fans not old enough to see "Saw VI" an alternate to get their weekend movie thrills from. Universal's marketing push has been modest at best for this PG-13 film starring John C. Reilly, and reviews have been less than kind. Still, vampires are a hot commodity these days, and "Vampire's Assistant" might drum up some business from those who are anxiously awaiting the next "Twilight" film. Opening in 2,754 theaters, watch for "Cirque Du Freak" to pull in roughly $8 million for the weekend.

After a month of platform release, Paramount's sleeper hit "Paranormal Activity" will finally be unleashed on screens nationwide this weekend. After 27 days, the movie has pulled in a large $38 million from a less than 800 screen count. And during the past week, it has traded places with "Law Abiding Citizen" for the number one spot at the box office. By expanding the film to nearly 2,000 screens, "Paranormal Activity" may give "Saw" a run for its money and for the number one spot. Watch for the Little Film That Could to pull in at least $20 million this weekend, if not more.

It's become a bit of a tradition for Disney to re-release 1993's "The Nightmare Before Christmas" to theaters for a weekend or two prior to Halloween. This year is no exception, although this may prove to be the last reissue the film sees for quite some time. It's been available on DVD for ages and the movie even made its Blu-ray debut last year as well. Heading back to 105 theaters, Jack Skellington and company might pull in $300,000 or so to bring the film's overall gross to the $75 million mark, a third of which has come from various reissues over the years.

With "Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs" cooling off and Buzz and Woody heading back to the Pixar/Disney vault, the box office might be receptive to a new computer-animated feature for families to check out. That movie would be Summit Entertainment's "Astro Boy", which arrives in theaters this weekend. Featuring the voice talents of Nicolas Cage, Kristen Bell, Samuel L. Jackson, Bill Nighy and Freddie Highmore among others, the PG-rated reimagining of the Japanese cartoon hero might appeal most to the under-10 set, which many parents feel are too young to see the other "kids movie" currently playing across America, "Where the Wild Things Are". Debuting on roughly 3,000 screens, "Astro Boy" might land $10 million this weekend.

The last wide release of the weekend is Fox Searchlight's biopic "Amelia", directed by Mira Nair and starring Hilary Swank, Ewan McGregor, Richard Gere and Virginia Madsen. The drama about the famed aviator might prove to be a bit of a refuge to those uninterested in torture porn, ghosts, vampires, robot boys or singing skeletons (translation: adults). However, for a movie like "Amelia" to succeed, it needs strong word-of-mouth from critics. Judging by the 18% approval rating the film currently carries on the Rotten Tomatoes website, the film may be grounded before it can even take off (my friend Brett thought the film wasn't all that bad). Opening in roughly 800 theaters, "Amelia" might nab roughly $4 million this weekend.

Last weekend's champ, "Where the Wild Things Are", did well in its initial release, but that may have been due more to the marketing and director Spike Jonze's cult following than anything else. Word-of-mouth has been mixed from viewers, with many a parent a bit peturbed about the movie being "too dark" for its target audience. Still, the film has its champions (myself included) and the feedback from those people may keep "Wild" from fading too quickly (higher-priced IMAX tickets could help too). "Things" should see a 50-55% drop to around $15 million for the weekend, which would bring its 10-day gross to roughly $54 million.

Next weekend, the much-anticipated Michael Jackson performance film "This Is It" (too bad "Cirque Du Freak" was already used as a title) arrives, which will no doubt destroy everything in its path.

2 comments:

  1. I was so surprised to see the ads for Cirque du Freak, as its (the series) seemed to have peaked around five years ago, if my highly scientific observation of young adult shoppers at B&N is any indication. Also the production values look AWFUL. What, did they spend a whole $27.99 on the sets? $14.08 on the makeup? TERRIBLE.
    P.S. Hope you're feeling better!

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  2. Yeah, I had a feeling that Universal was trying to dump the pic when the only time I saw ads for the film was during "Family Guy" reruns and nowhere else.

    PS-Feeling better. Thanks! :)

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