Best Director: who will be nominated and who will win?

This year's possibilities for Best Director is a mix of old and new, a few that have been in this category before (one of them winning) and a few that will give the "Old Boys Club" a bit of a well-needed shakeup.

There are three directors whose nominations will come as no suprise. Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker", Jason Reitman for "Up in the Air" and James 'King of the World' Cameron for his 3-D sci-fi epic "Avatar". Bigelow and Reitman certainly deserve their nominations, and to a certain extent Cameron does as well for creating such an eye-opening universe in his film (and for bringing in so much money to Hollywood this past Christmas). It certainly would not be for his directing his actors.

So who will fill spots four and five? Well, it won't be Academy favorite Clint Eastwood. A month ago, he may have been a strong possibility for his sports drama "Invictus". But then the movie opened, got mixed reviews and grossed a small $35 million. As the year came to a close, Warner's backing of Eastwood and the film grew smaller and smaller. Martin Scorsese would have no doubt been talked about for "Shutter Island"...if it actually opened in October as planned. Instead, Marty will have to wait until the 2010 awards season (providing the film and his work is worthy of accolades). Quentin Tarantino certainly could nab a spot for his terrific work on "Inglourious Basterds", but voters may feel that honoring the director of one violent film ("The Hurt Locker") is enough for the year.

My guesses for spots four and five are Lee Daniels for his independent hit drama "Precious" and...wait for it...John Lee Hancock for "The Blind Side". Daniels is a pretty sure bet as he was one of the five candidates for the Directors Guild of America awards this year and his work was universally well-liked by critics. As for Hancock, he might not necessarily deserve the nomination over, say, Tarantino or Peter Docter and Bob Petersen for "UP" (there is no way they would nominate a duo who directed an animation feature, trust me on this). But "The Blind Side" quietly became a cinematic phenomenon since its debut alongside the recent "Twilight" sequel last November. Handing out nominations for the film, lead Sandra Bullock and director Hancock would be a smart way for the Academy to pull in mainstream audiences during the telecast of the ceremony.

Of these five diverse possible nominees, I think this will be the year that a woman finally takes home Best Director (and boy, does she deserve it). Kathryn Bigelow has been a director that has always shown she has the talent and potential to really take off as a big-time, serious director. Yet even with her strongest material (the underrated "Strange Days"), she has in one way or another fallen a bit short. With her powerhouse Iraq War drama she not only overcame her storytelling hurdles, she downright destroyed them. It will be a pleasure to see her win Best Director this year. Well, that and she'll win over her ex-husband James Cameron. That alone will be worth watching.