My Oscar predictions for tonight (well, most of them anyway)

I'll be blogging the night away tonight during the Oscar ceremony, and I welcome you to post your comments alongside mine (the more will definitely be the merrier). Since these awards have been examined to death since January, I'm simply going to run down most of the awards with who I think will win and who I think should win.

Best Picture:

Should win: "The Hurt Locker"
Will win: "The Hurt Locker"

Yes, Pixar's "UP" was my favorite film of 2009 and yes, that film was also nominated for Best Picture. But you and I both know that there is no way in hell that it will win for Best Picture. That said, I am going with my number two film of last year, easily the best live-action American film of last year and one of the best war-themed films in the past quarter century.

Best Director:

Should win: Kathryn Bigelow
Will win: Kathryn Bigelow

It's long overdue. It's long overdue that a woman nabs this statue and it is long overdue that Hollywood recognizes Bigelow as a truly talented filmmaker. Plus, no one wants to hear James "EGO" Cameron wax poetic about how great he truly thinks he is. Again.

Best Actor:

Should win: Jeremy Renner
Will win: Jeff Bridges

Renner had the more complicated role and performance, but Bridges is remarkably overdue for an Oscar (and he was pretty damn great in "Crazy Heart" to boot). I, along with anyone else who has ever seen JB in a film, will have no problem seeing The Dude get what he deserves.

Best Actress:

Should win: Carrey Mulligan
Will win: Sandra Bullock

I'm done bemoaning the fact that Bullock will win for the crowd-pleasing "The Blind Side". At this point, it is almost destiny. Mulligan's performance was miles better than Bullock's, but she'll be back.

Best Supporting Actor:

Should/will win: Christoph Waltz

That's a bingo, baby!

Best Supporting Actress:

Should/will win: Mo-Nique

That's another bingo, baby.

Best Original Screenplay:

Should win: The Hurt Locker
Will win: Inglourious Basterds

Tough call, and both are great screenplays, but I think that "The Hurt Locker" will win more than enough awards elsewhere that the Academy will see fit to share the love with the other war-themed film from 2009. Besides, it's some of Tarantino's best writing to date. He should get some awards love.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Should/will win: Up in the Air

Talk about getting the wind taken out of your sails. Remember when this film was the front runner for the Oscars four months ago? My, how times have changed. A single award for the film doesn't make it any less of a great movie. Just look at "Sideways", "Almost Famous" or that little art film called "Pulp Fiction". All great and all heavily tipped to be big Oscar winners that wound up with a screenplay award. Reitman will be in good company.

Best Animated Feature:

Should/Will win: UP

I love "Fantastic Mr. Fox", but let's be serious here. There is only one animated film from 2009 that deserves this award. Of course, if "UP" doesn't take this award, the Best Picture category is going to become even more of a guessing game.

Best Editing:

Should/Will win: The Hurt Locker

A majority of the film's intenstiy derived from the superb editing. Plus, most of the time the movie that wins Best Editing wins Best Film. This will probably be no exception.

Best Visual Effects:

Should win: District 9
Will win: Avatar

They have to give Cameron's film something, it might as well be the wall-to-wall computer effects. Still, I think the seamless interaction between live actors and CG aliens was far more effective -and impressive- in the low-budget South African sci-fi flick than it was in Jimmy's $280 million bloated bore.