Best Picture: who will be nominated and who will win?

For movie fans, no matter how good or bad the season is, making guesses on which actors/actresses and films will be nominated for an Academy Award is always a fun thing to do in the dreary winter season. With the Academy expanding the Best Picture category from five films to ten, the guessing game becomes even more fun (for lack of a better term) than before.

Over the next week or so, I am going to be taking a look at the top categories for the Academy Awards and offer up my predictions, who I think should and will win as well as offer up a bit of reasoning as to why. Chances are pretty good that I will be off on most of my guesses, but it's always a fun thing to do on my lunch hour.

Best Picture: (predictions) Up In the Air, Avatar, Up, Precious, Inglourious Basterds, The Hurt Locker, An Education, Star Trek, District 9 and The Blind Side.

The ten nominees will be comprise two types of Best Picture categories: crowd-pleasing blockbuster entertainment and the standard Academy fare. The former group, "Avatar" and "Up" aside, would probably not get a nomination slot if the field remainded at five. But since it has been expanded (a move to try and get more of the general public to watch the awards), the likes of "The Blind Side", "Star Trek" and "District 9", all well-reviewed and publicly-beloved hits, will join the elite group of award hopefuls.

If I were able to choose a film to give Best Picture to, Pixar's blockbuster "Up" would get it without missing a beat. The film had a wonderful balance of comedy, drama and adventure interwoven into a terrific story about realizing your dreams. And while the film was most likely the best-reviewed film of 2009, I have a feeling that Pixar, yet again, will have to suffice with an award for Best Animated Feature, which is a complete injustice. "Up in the Air" will take home awards in the writing and possibly acting areas, but not Best Picture as it is more character than plot-driven. "Precious" started off strong, but peaked far too early for its own good (this will be another one that nabs an award or two for its acting). "Avatar" may be the most popular, but it's not Best Picture material (plus, I'm sure many a voter is jealous of Jimmy 'King of the World' Cameron's success). The same goes for "The Blind Side". "An Education" may not be known well-enough to nab the top prize, while the likes of "Trek", "Basterds" and "District 9" should be happy enough with a nomination.

This leaves Kathryn Bigelow's knockout war drama "The Hurt Locker", to be the frontrunner for Best Picture. With its raw honesty, relentless intensity and apolitical stance on the quagmire in Irag, "Locker" is certainly worthy of the award.  Many feel that Hollywood might not be ready to reward a grim, low-grossing ($13 million to date) independent film set during one of our current conflicts, and who knows? They just might play it safe and go with "Up In the Air". But if you look back to the 1978 (The Deer Hunter) and 1986 (Platoon) Academy Award ceremonies, being a heavy-duty drama set in or around a controversial war didn't prove to be much of a stumbling block during awards season.  

Should win: Up
Will win: The Hurt Locker