Weekend Box Office Estimates: "When in Rome"...visit Pandora and Roslindale instead

For the seventh straight weekend, James Cameron's Oscar-bound hit "Avatar" stayed atop the North American box office. The 3-D epic held off the return of Mel Gibson in "Edge of Darkness" and the Kristen Bell romantic comedy "When In Rome".

Now sitting within seven million dollars of the domestic record held by "Titanic", "Avatar" tucked away another $30 million this weekend for a new estimated cume to date of $594.4 million to date. With the Oscar nominations set to roll out on Tuesday morning, the film may actual see a spike in sales from the few remaining individuals on the planet who haven't seen the film yet (like it needs any help with sales). Another milestone will no doubt be topped this week when the film's worldwide gross passes the two billion dollar mark in sales.

At this time, we should thank the success of "Avatar" for opening the door to such upcoming 3-D projects as "Jackass 3" and the world's (allegedly) first 3-D porno film, to be written and directed by "Caligula" director Tinto Brass.

In second place was Mel Gibson's return to being a film's lead actor since 2002's "Signs", the Martin Campbell thriller "Edge of Darkness" with an estimated $17.1 million from 3,066 screens. It seemed that there were two big hurdles facing this film prior to opening, both dealing with its star: Could Gibson still open a film like he used to and more importantly, has the public forgiven him for his anti-Semitic comments made at the time of his 2006 arrest? ‘Edge’s decent opening appears to be an answer of "to an extent" for both. Reviews were mixed (I thought it was enjoyable enough to recommend), but a 30% spike in sales on Saturday suggests that ticket buyers liked what they saw and were recommending the film to others.

Third place went to the Kristen Bell/Josh Duhamel romantic comedy "When In Rome", which seduced an estimated $12 million. Like the recent "Leap Year", this film played almost exclusively to young females and a portion of the date crowd that couldn't be persuaded to visit Pandora or Roslindale to see how Mel is holding up. With toxic reviews from critics (a few of my friends referred to the film as 'a piece of shit') and a mediocre opening gross, don't expect "Rome" to last too long past Valentine's Day (if that) in theaters.

Apparently, the kiddies are enjoying the latest Dwayne Johnson comedy "The Tooth Fairy" as the film held up very well in its second weekend. With an estimated $10.3 million and a new cume of approximately $26 million, the film is doing most of its business on Saturday and Sunday matinees. If families continue to show up on weekends, the film could finish in the neighborhood of $40-45 million.

In fifth spot was the Denzel Washington action film "The Book of Eli" which added another $8.7 million to its coffers and a new estimated gross of $74.3 million. The $80 million production looks to end its run in the United States with a solid $90 million take. Dropping 61% from last weekend's $17 million opening was the weapon-toting guardian angel film "Legion" in sixth place with $6.8 million for the weekend and a new total of $28.5 million. 

The remainder of the top ten was as follows: "The Lovely Bones" $4.7 million ($38 million to date), "Sherlock Holmes" $4.5 millon ($197.5 million), "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel" $4 million ($209 million) and "It's Complicated" with $3.7 million and a $104 million gross to date.

Next week, the romantic drama "Dear John" and the John Travolta actionier "From Paris With Love" open in wide release, while the Fox Searchlight Oscar contender "Crazy Heart" expands to 500 screens. Watch for "Avatar" to hold onto the top spot yet again next weekend.

It's Ladies Night at the Directors Guild of America Awards!

"Hurt Locker" director Kathryn Bigelow deservedly won the Director's Guild of America (DGA) award for her superb work on the Iraq War picture last night in Hollywood. Bigelow is the first woman to win the award for a motion picture in the Guild's 62-year history. She is only the seventh woman to be nominated for this award, and she beat out Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds), Lee Daniels (Precious) and her ex-husband James Cameron (Avatar). A tip of the hat should go to Cameron since he was the one who strongly recommended that Bigelow make the film. Thank you Mr. Cameron and congrats to Ms. Bigelow.

Best Actor: who might be nominated and the sure-bet who will win

While Best Picture and Director is anyone's guess following the Golden Globe awards last week, guessing the Best Actor category is a bit easier. In fact, it four of the following five actors are not nominated for their work, I would be stunned.

As with the actual selection of years, the selection of award-worthy performances for lead actors and actresses in 2009 were somewhat slim. Sure, there was a lot of good work from actors up on the big screen, but very few were good enough to make viewers go "wow, now THAT is acting!". A prime example would be anyone from the cast of one of my favorite films of 2009, J.J. Abrams' "Star Trek". Everyone turned in fine performances across the board, but were any of them nomination-worthy? No. I guess if I had to pick one (underline 'had'), it would Karl Urban's take on 'Bones' McCoy. But that was more of a satisfying embodiment of actor DeForrest Kelley than anything else.

Fortunately, there were enough to fill the category without any real embarassment choices by the Academy. In fact, all they have to do is mimic the Screen Actors Guild and they have their category, a nice mix of the old and the new in Hollywood (well, that and it won't make my predictions look ridiculous). George Clooney will score his second lead actor nomination for his great work in "Up in the Air", while Colin Firth will score his first nomination in a lead for the arthouse flick "A Single Man" (not to be confused with the wildly overrated Coen Brothers film "A Serious Man"). Jeremy Renner will also score his first nomination for his great performance in Kathryn Bigelow's "The Hurt Locker", while Morgan Freeman will score a nod for his turn as Nelson Mandella in Clint Eastwood's sports drama "Invictus".

This leaves spot number five, the only clear-cut favorite for this year's Best Actor award: Jeff Bridges, for his role as an alcoholic country-western singer making a comeback in "Crazy Heart". While I have yet to see the film, who can argue the fact that Bridges is alarmingly long overdue for some Oscar recognition, and that he probably does deserve the award for his work in the Fox Searchlight indie drama. Bridges is a great actor, period. He would have to have sleepwalked through this film for me to think that this is a sympathy vote. Bridges has been winning award ceremonies left and right for his work in "Crazy Heart", and his win last night at the Screen Actors Guild awards all but seals the deal (great speech, by the way).

The Dude will win, and I am sure we will all abide.

Weekend Box Office: Blue people keep Indiana Jones, the Apocalypse and the Tooth Fairy at bay

For the sixth weekend in a row James Cameron's "Avatar" stayed at the number one spot at the North American box office. Three new films entered the marketplace but only the horror film "Legion" made any sort of impact. Holdovers began to show their age as, "Avatar" aside, the box office began to quiet down following several weeks of very strong business.

With an estimated $36 million from 3,141 screens and a new cume of $552 million, Fox's sci-fi juggernaut sailed past "The Dark Knight" to become the second-highest grossing domestic film release of all-time (pre-inflation, of course). The drop from last weekend's 3-day holiday take of $42.7 million is less than 20% (if estimates hold), which is just incredible in light of how much the movie has made and how many have seen it thus far. If the successive weekend drops continue to stay in the 20-30% range, "Avatar" could finish up its domestic box office gross somewhere in the $650 million dollar range, which is a gross that few people if any could have predicted when the movie opened in mid-December.

Of course, the film that "Avatar" has in its sights next for all-time box office domination is Cameron's previous film, "Titanic". While it will pass the 1997 drama's $600 million gross within the next ten days or so, it will pass "Titanic"s global gross of $1.2 billion sometime today. As of Friday, "Avatar"s foreign take was at $1.194 billion.

Elsewhere at the box office...

Second place went to the new apocalyptic thriller "Legion", which grossed an estimated $18 million from 2,476 screens. Produced for a modest $26 million, this horror entry from Sony's B-movie division Screen Gems opened as the studio expected thanks to an onslaught of advertising since the beginning of the year. While "Legion" did respectable business on Friday with a $6.7 million gross, the film only saw a 2% rise in sales on Saturday which is never a good sign for a movie's long-term prospects at the box office.

Third spot went to another apocalyptic (in this case, post-apocalyptic) thriller with biblical overtones, Denzel Washington's "The Book of Eli" with an estimated $17 million gross. Off 48% from last weekend's strong opening, the new action flick from the Hughes Brothers now has a very healthy ten-day take of $62 million. Depending on how steep the drops are over the next few weekends, "Book" could finish with a take between $90-100 million in domestic ticket sales.

In fourth place was the second new release of the weekend, the family comedy "The Tooth Fairy". Starring Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, Julie Andrews and Billy Crystal, the critically-slammed comedy could only muster $14.5 million in estimated ticket sales from a wide 3,344 screen count. Apparently, I'm not the only one who was mortified at the film's trailers, although I did find the dog hanging off the wing kind of amusing. Given how well "Avatar" continues to do, I'm sure Fox could care less how badly this film does.

Apparently, focusing on the tween girl market to sell the ultra-expensive fantasy drama "The Lovely Bones" was good for one weekend of decent business. Peter Jackson's adaptation of the Alice Siebold novel dropped by 50% from last weekend to pull in a paltry $8.5 million for fifth place this weekend. With a new estimated cume of $31.3 million, the film will have to do spectacular business overseas to turn any sort of profit for distribs Paramount and Dreamworks.

Sixth place went to Warner's holiday hit "Sherlock Holmes" with an estimated $7.2 million for a new gross to date of $191.5 million. The movie should cross the $200 million mark in the next two weeks and probably finish up with a gross between $205-210 million prior to its March 30th home video debut.

Seventh spot went to the first theatrical release of the newly-formed CBS Films, the Harrison Ford/Brendan Fraiser medical drama "Extraordinary Measures" which imploded with a dismal $7 million from 2,549 screens. While the movie was heavily promoted, mostly on the CBS network, the drama had the look and feel of a television movie and a familiar one at that. This never helps sell a film theatrically, but then again neither do universally bad reviews from critics (remember, dramas aimed adults live or die on reviews). While Fraiser's career isn't in need of extraordinary measures to save it (yet), Ford's sure is. Between 2006's "Firewall", last year's "Crossing Over" and now "Measures", Ford's career is on life support when he isn't playing Indiana Jones. Watch for this film to hit home video, or even CBS itself, in no time flat.

Rounding out the top ten were three holdovers. "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel" brought in an additional $6.5 million for a new estimated cume of $205 million. The Meryl Streep/Alec Baldwin comedy "It's Complicated" made another $6 million to inch it ever so closer to the $100 million mark (it now stands at $98.5 million), while Sandra Bullock's runaway hit drama "The Blind Side" brought in another $4.5 million to bring its new estimated total to $234 million to date.

Next weekend, Mel Gibson returns to being in front of the camera after an eight-year absence with the thriller "Edge of Darkness", while Kristen Bell and Josh Duhamel star in the romantic comedy "When In Rome". Will Mad Mel or Veronica Mars have what it takes to knock the Na'vi off their perch? We shall see.   

My take on the Golden Globes, short and sweet

I opted not to watch last night's Golden Globes ceremony. After all, there was far more important television to be viewed: the eighth season premiere of "24" (a.k.a. The Jack Bauer Power Hour). But I did keep tabs on who and what was winning. While I was happy to see that Pixar's "UP" won Best Animated Feature, Meryl Streep won for "Julie and Julia" and Jeff Bridges for "Crazy Heart" (I haven't seen the film, but how can you not be happy to see Bridges get some long, long overdue awards love?), I was aghast to find out that James "King" Cameron won for Best Director and "Avatar" won....for BEST DRAMA!?!?!?! Over "The Hurt Locker", "Inglourious Basterds" and "Up in the Air". You have got to be fucking kidding me ("The Hangover" winning Best Comedy/Musical, I can live with. That category was a joke unto itself).

Look, I know that "Avatar" is groundbreaking on a technical level and it has pulled in more money than God, but on a storytelling level, the film is as routine and flat as they come, far below the level that Cameron brought to his other films like "Aliens", "The Terminator" and even "Titanic". If "Avatar" winning the Golden Globs last night makes it the new leader in the Oscar race for Best Picture, I will only be more than happy to scrub my kitchen floor the night of March 2nd.     

Best Director: who will be nominated and who will win?

This year's possibilities for Best Director is a mix of old and new, a few that have been in this category before (one of them winning) and a few that will give the "Old Boys Club" a bit of a well-needed shakeup.

There are three directors whose nominations will come as no suprise. Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker", Jason Reitman for "Up in the Air" and James 'King of the World' Cameron for his 3-D sci-fi epic "Avatar". Bigelow and Reitman certainly deserve their nominations, and to a certain extent Cameron does as well for creating such an eye-opening universe in his film (and for bringing in so much money to Hollywood this past Christmas). It certainly would not be for his directing his actors.

So who will fill spots four and five? Well, it won't be Academy favorite Clint Eastwood. A month ago, he may have been a strong possibility for his sports drama "Invictus". But then the movie opened, got mixed reviews and grossed a small $35 million. As the year came to a close, Warner's backing of Eastwood and the film grew smaller and smaller. Martin Scorsese would have no doubt been talked about for "Shutter Island"...if it actually opened in October as planned. Instead, Marty will have to wait until the 2010 awards season (providing the film and his work is worthy of accolades). Quentin Tarantino certainly could nab a spot for his terrific work on "Inglourious Basterds", but voters may feel that honoring the director of one violent film ("The Hurt Locker") is enough for the year.

My guesses for spots four and five are Lee Daniels for his independent hit drama "Precious" and...wait for it...John Lee Hancock for "The Blind Side". Daniels is a pretty sure bet as he was one of the five candidates for the Directors Guild of America awards this year and his work was universally well-liked by critics. As for Hancock, he might not necessarily deserve the nomination over, say, Tarantino or Peter Docter and Bob Petersen for "UP" (there is no way they would nominate a duo who directed an animation feature, trust me on this). But "The Blind Side" quietly became a cinematic phenomenon since its debut alongside the recent "Twilight" sequel last November. Handing out nominations for the film, lead Sandra Bullock and director Hancock would be a smart way for the Academy to pull in mainstream audiences during the telecast of the ceremony.

Of these five diverse possible nominees, I think this will be the year that a woman finally takes home Best Director (and boy, does she deserve it). Kathryn Bigelow has been a director that has always shown she has the talent and potential to really take off as a big-time, serious director. Yet even with her strongest material (the underrated "Strange Days"), she has in one way or another fallen a bit short. With her powerhouse Iraq War drama she not only overcame her storytelling hurdles, she downright destroyed them. It will be a pleasure to see her win Best Director this year. Well, that and she'll win over her ex-husband James Cameron. That alone will be worth watching.  

Weekend Box Office: "Book" opens strong, but not strong enough to dislodge you-know-who

A trio of new films, one expanding into wide release following a one-month limited run, arrived on the North American box office scene this weekend, but none were potent enough to dislodge "Avatar" from the top spot. The trio posted numbers that ranged from mild to quite good as the top ten box office stayed quite strong over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend (estimates are based on the three-day weekend).

The biggest debut of the weekend went to the Denzel Washington sci-fi action film "The Book of Eli", which debuted on 3,111 screens for an estimated cume of $31.6 million. On Friday, the Hughes Brothers-directed tale actually took the top spot from "Avatar" with an opening day gross of $11.7 million ("Avatar" made $10.4 million on Friday), but relinquished the spot on Saturday as Cameron's PG-13 fantasy surged ahead in ticket sales. "Eli" saw its gross rise only by roughly $1 million on Saturday, which usually indicates mixed word-of-mouth from viewers and a possibly rough road ahead at the box office. Still, "Eli"s debut is impressive, especially in light of its R-rating and grim apocalyptic tone.

Speaking of James Cameron's blockbuster, the movie held tight and added another $41.6 million to its take to edge closer to the half-billion dollar mark ($492 million) after only one month of release (it should breeze by that milestone by Monday or Tuesday of this week). With drops of only 20-30% each weekend, the film will easily pass "The Dark Knight"s $533 million domestic take to become the second-highest grossing film of all time (pre-inflation adjustment) and is looking more and more likely to overtake "Titanic"s $600 million lifetime gross when all is said and done.

After spending a month in limited release in New York and Los Angeles, where the film struggled to make half a million bucks, Peter Jackson's "The Lovely Bones" finally expanded to 2,563 screens for an estimated three-day take of $17 million. The critically-reviled adaptation of Alice Siebold's novel had its marketing campaign drastically revised over the past month or so by distributor Paramount, focusing more on teenage girls than adults (translation: the demographic that doesn't read reviews).

The revised ad campaign might have worked for opening weekend, but the real test will come over the next few weeks to see if the tween set's reaction winds up being more "OMG!" than "WTF?" (which was my reaction to the film). One thing is for certain: with its $100 million price tag, it will take divine intervention for "Lovely Bones" to be a profitable film.

The third opener of the weekend was the Jackie Chan family comedy "The Spy Next Door" arrived DOA with an estimated $9.7 million from 2,924 screens. The film was never expected to be big, but it was expected to do better since it is a holiday weekend. Expect this film to move next door to other forgettable family flicks at your local Blockbuster in a few months.

Apparently, families were still catching up with the "Alvin and the Chipmunks" sequel to bother with the Jackie Chan opus, depositing another $11.5 million into the rodent's coffers for a new estimated cume of $193 million. Fellow Christmas week release "Sherlock Holmes" pulled in another $9.8 million for a new to-date total of $180 million.

The remainder of the top ten were holdovers from the Christmas season as well as the first two weeks of January. "It's Complicated" continued to pull in the adult crowd for another $7.6 million and a new take of approximately $88 million. After debuting softly last weekend, "Leap Year" held on for another weekend with a $5.8 million estimated take and a $17 million to-date gross. Watch for Amy Adams' romantic comedy to finish near $30 million.

While the Baltimore Ravens got booted out of the playoffs Saturday night, the movie about one of their offensive tacklers, Michael Oher, was far from being down and out. The resilient "The Blind Side" pulled in another $5.6 million in sales this weekend, bringing its total up to the $226 million mark. In tenth spot was another adult-oriented film, "Up in the Air" also with an estimated $5.5 million take to bring its cume to $63 million.

Next weekend, the horror entry "Legion", the Harrison Ford medical drama "Extraordinary Measures" and the Dwayne Johnson comedy "The Tooth Fairy" all debut.

In other words, it looks like another weekend at number one for "Avatar".


  

What I've been watching lately...

Anyone who knows me knows that during the first few months of the year, I seldom go to the cinema. In fact, the last time I went to the theater was Christmas night to see "Sherlock Holmes". But let's face reality here, January through March is usually the weakest of the year for movies. The selection is mediocre at best and the chilly, crappy winter weather doesn't help matters much either. Ask yourself this: even if you could get in for free, would you go out in twenty degree weather to drive to a crowded theater to see the likes of a "Lovely Bones", "Spy Next Door" or "Youth in Revolt"? I didn't think so.

Do I stay away from theaters completely? Hell no. If there is a film that is getting raves across the board (like Michael Haneke's "The White Ribbon") or something I am genuinely interested in seeing, such as the upcoming "Edge of Darkness", "Shutter Island" and "The Wolfman", I'll only be more than happy to get my ass out in the New England cold to get to a screening. More often than not though, I will opt to just stay indoors and watch stuff at home.

So what have I been watching since December 26th? Well, read on to find out.

"John Adams": David McCullough's best-selling novel was turned into a seven-part HBO miniseries two years ago, with Paul Giamatti in the starring role as the man who would become the second President of the United States. The supporting cast, including Laura Linney as John's wife Abigail, Tom Wilkinson as Benjamin Franklin and Danny Huston as John's cousin -and future beer bottle dude- Sam, help director Tom Hooper make this miniseries shine. My only real complaint is the use of odd angles throughout the series, making it feel more like an episode of the Adam West "Batman" television series than it did a serious-minded historical drama. Nonetheless, the subject matter is as gripping and fascinating as you would expect, and you will find yourself addicted to the series in a matter of no time.

"Ferris Bueller's Day Off": With filmmaker John Hughes passing away last year, I've been feeling the need to go back and watch two of my favorite films from the late director, "Planes, Trains and Automobiles" (which I always watch during Thanksgiving week) and his best film, this wistful 1986 comedy starring Matthew Broderick in his trademark role (at least to this writer). Despite being a product of its time, the film still holds up remarkably well. If you haven't seen it in a while, give it a spin. You'll be surprised how much you still laugh at it and how it good it still makes you feel.

"RocknRolla": After seeing the enjoyable "Sherlock Holmes", I wanted to give Guy Ritchie's previous British crime film a spin. I got through about an hour of it before I gave up. Once again, a motley group of criminals and gangsters are running around London swearing, scheming, shooting and looting. Now, this was fine for Ritchie's debut "Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels" and his follow up, "Snatch", which featured a hilarious turn by Brad Pitt. But after a while, you have to move on. Ritchie tried and failed with a remake of "Swept Away" starring his then-wife (are they still married?) Madonna. Fortunately, his second attempt at something different, "Holmes", was more of a success. Here's hoping this prevents Ritchie from returning to the criminal underworld, because there is absolutely no life left in it for him.

"Howards End": At the absolutely opposite end of the Brit spectrum from "RocknRolla" is this 1992 Merchant/Ivory adaptation of the E.M. Forster novel, which has been given a beautiful high-definition release from the Criterion Collection company. Leisurely-paced but very well-told and acted by its first-rate ensemble cast that includes Emma Thompson (in her Oscar-winning role), Anthony Hopkins and Helena-Bonham-Carter, I've always preferred this class-struggle in turn-of-the-century England to "A Room With A View", which has not held up very well over the past two decades.

"Family Guy: Something, Something, Something Dark Side": I'm a fan of the raunchy animated Fox comedy, and I really enjoyed the first "Star Wars" spoof done by Seth MacFarlane, "Blue Harvest". The straight-to-home video release of the "Empire Strikes Back" spoof, "Something, Something, Something Dark Side", is also somewhat amusing, but nowhere near as good as "Harvest". Your level of enjoyment out of the short will depend on two things: 1) how well you know the 1980 "Star Wars" sequel and 2) how well you know "Family Guy". The first doesn't matter as much as the second, given the reaction one of my friends had to a viewing of the special the day after Christmas. He certainly knows the movie, but isn't all that familiar with "Family Guy". The stretches of silence from him during the show were deafening.

"District 9": A smart mix of social commentary and science-fiction, last year's surprise box office smash, and one of 2009's best films, translates just fine to the small screen. The biggest benefit of the home video release of "District 9" may be with its documentary-style cinematography that makes up the first half of the film. In the theater, it suffered the same issues that "Public Enemies" did: the high-def cameras made the movie look downright ugly. On home video, the picture is as clear as glass. The supplemental material is quite interesting, but one wishes that the original short film "Alive in Joburg" were also included. Oh well, I guess that is what YouTube is for.

"Dances With Wolves" (theatrical cut) : With all my rambling over the past month that "Avatar" is "Dances With Wolves" in outer space, I thought I would give Kevin Costner's 1990 award-winning drama a spin to see not only if my gripes were valid, but also to see how well the film holds up. I was correct with the similarities (my main gripe wasn't lack of originality. It was Cameron's inability to do anything fresh with the story) and was impressed at how well Costner's directorial debut held up. The film is not available on blu-ray in North America yet, but region-free copies (like the one I got from the UK) are available for import.

"Paris, Texas": I am currently going through Criterion's January 26th blu-ray release of Wim Wenders' 1984 family drama, but what I have seen so far of the disc chalks up yet another winner from the folks at Criterion, a must-own for fans of the film. As for the movie itself, Wenders' drama is still as heartbreaking and involving as it was when I first saw it a quarter of a century ago (!). Like "Wings of Desire", Wenders' follow up film, "Paris, Texas" takes its time to reach its destination, which may prove to be a bit of a chore for those of an impatient nature. But trust me, it's worth the trip.

(500) Days of Summer: Ahhh, Zooey Deschanel in high definition. And, um, the film is pretty funny as well.

Two more classics announced for blu-ray

Two much-desired classic films are making their high-definition debut on the blu-ray format this spring: David Lean's 1965 epic "Doctor Zhivago" and John Huston's "The African Queen". "Zhivago" will be released by Warner Home Video on May 4th and "Queen" will be released by Paramount Home Video on March 23rd. Each film will also be released on standard-definition DVD as well.

While "Zhivago" has been released on DVD previously, "African Queen" has not. In fact, the last time the film made a home video format debut was when a deluxe box set was released by Fox Home Video on the laserdisc format back in the early 1990s. Both films have undergone extensive 4K restorations and will come with tons of bonus features on both their DVD and blu-ray releases. Please click on the above links for product details.

Weekend Box Office: "Avatar"s blue aliens are still seeing lots of green

The North American box office stayed strong for the second weekend of 2010 based on early estimates. Although three new wide releases, the first of the decade, yielded mild-to-decent ticket sales, they failed to dislodge the trio of Christmas holdovers that continue to dominate ticket sales.

For the fourth weekend in a row, the first film to sit at the top spot for that length of time since "The Dark Knight", James Cameron's 3-D epic "Avatar" led all other films, hauling in an estimated $48.5 million from 3,422 screens for a new domestic take of approximately $429 million. Whereas most films saw understandable post-holiday drops of 50% or more, the Na'vi tale saw only a drop of roughly 35%. If the movie can keep up this pace, "Avatar" has a solid chance of passing "Knight"s $533 million domestic gross.

Globally, the film passed "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" this past week to become the second highest-grossing film of all time (pre-inflation). With no real competition on the horizon, it's a safe bet that 20th Century Fox's pricey sci-fi film will continue at the top spot for at least another two weekends if not longer.

The films occupying spots two and three were also repeats. Second place went to Warner's "Sherlock Holmes" with an estimated $16.8 million from 3,626 screens and a new total of $167 million. Dropping a little over 50% from the previous weekend, the Robert Downey Jr.-starrer should finish somewhere near the $200 million milestone. Third went to "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel". The wise-cracking rodents grabbed another $16 million in estimated ticket sales bringing its total near the $178 million mark. The film’s final gross should wind up close to the original's $217 take from two years ago.

Fourth place went to the new horror film "Daybreakers" with $15 million in estimated sales for its first three days. The moderately well-reviewed genre flick opened better than expected but is playing like other films in its genre by opening strongly on Friday and dropping each successive day after that. Next weekend will show whether the film was the recipient of positive viewer word-of-mouth or not.

Fifth and sixth place went to a pair of Universal comedies, one new and one older. "It's Complicated" pulled in another $11 million to bring its estimated take to the $76 million mark. The $100 million mark is still a strong possibility for the Meryl Streep/Alec Baldwin comedy. Sixth spot went to the new Amy Adams romantic comedy "Leap Year", which leapt to a mild $9 million gross from 2,511 screens. Perhaps the poorly-reviewed film might have done a bit better had the studio not showed the entire story in the film's commercials.

A possible tie looked to be in works for the films occupying spots seven and eight. Warner's other late 2009 hit, the unstoppable football drama "The Blind Side", landed in seventh place to add another $7.5 million to its take for an estimated gross of $219 million to date. The much-loved film should sprint by the $250 million mark in the next few weeks, aided by an Oscar nomination or two (including Best Actress and Picture). In eighth place was Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air", also with an estimated $7.5 million take and a new cume of $55 million. The film has been performing somewhat steadily since its wide expansion on Christmas Day, and should also see a healthy spike in sales once the Oscar nominations are announced.

Ninth place went to the new Michael Cera comedy "Youth In Revolt" with a moderate $7 million from 1,873 screens in its debut. The R-rated laughfest should find a bigger audience when it revolts on home video in a few months. Rounding out the top ten is Disney's animated "The Princess and the Frog" with a $4.5 million estimated take and a new to-date take of $93 million.

Next week, Denzel Washington returns to screens with "The Book of Eli", Jackie Chan hopes to pull in family audiences with "The Spy Next Door" and Peter Jackson's troubled adaptation of "The Lovely Bones" will finally go wide after a month of limited release.

Sam Mendes to direct the next 007 film?

While production for the 23rd 007 feature might be on hold while MGM is up on the selling block, there are reports floating around the internet this week that "American Beauty" director Sam Mendes might be the one calling the shots when the cameras eventually roll. A friend of mine had sent me a text informing me of the possible directing gig for the British filmmaker, stating that it may have been a good idea several years ago following Mendes' last great film, "Road to Perdition", but perhaps not so much now following his forgettable trifecta of "Jarhead", "Away We Go" and the abysmal "Revolutionary Road".

I would have to agree with my friend, to an extent. True, Mendes hit the ground running in 1999 with the superb "American Beauty" and followed that film up three years later with "Perdition", which I thought was every bit the equal to his end-of-the-millenium award winner. But after that, Mendes began to lose his touch. "Jarhead", which could have been a "Full Metal Jacket" for the first Gulf War, turned out to be a beautifully shot mixed bag at best. I've said my peace in the previous paragraph on "Revolutionary Road", which was followed up six months later with the wee indie-wannabe road comedy "Away We Go", which had some genuinely funny moments sprinkled throughout as well as a solid performance from Maya Rudolph, but in the end proved to be a pretty pointless affair. The promise that Mendes showed early in his career seemed to be slipping down the drain.

So, could a big-budget action film revive Mendes? Probably not. Mendes is a filmmaker who works best with actors and not pyrotechnics. But one never knows until the film is completed. If he does get the gig, perhaps he will bring more life to the characters than Marc Forster did in "Quantum of Solace". If he is unsure about handling the action, perhaps Mendes will hire someone who can.   

Best Picture: who will be nominated and who will win?

For movie fans, no matter how good or bad the season is, making guesses on which actors/actresses and films will be nominated for an Academy Award is always a fun thing to do in the dreary winter season. With the Academy expanding the Best Picture category from five films to ten, the guessing game becomes even more fun (for lack of a better term) than before.

Over the next week or so, I am going to be taking a look at the top categories for the Academy Awards and offer up my predictions, who I think should and will win as well as offer up a bit of reasoning as to why. Chances are pretty good that I will be off on most of my guesses, but it's always a fun thing to do on my lunch hour.

Best Picture: (predictions) Up In the Air, Avatar, Up, Precious, Inglourious Basterds, The Hurt Locker, An Education, Star Trek, District 9 and The Blind Side.

The ten nominees will be comprise two types of Best Picture categories: crowd-pleasing blockbuster entertainment and the standard Academy fare. The former group, "Avatar" and "Up" aside, would probably not get a nomination slot if the field remainded at five. But since it has been expanded (a move to try and get more of the general public to watch the awards), the likes of "The Blind Side", "Star Trek" and "District 9", all well-reviewed and publicly-beloved hits, will join the elite group of award hopefuls.

If I were able to choose a film to give Best Picture to, Pixar's blockbuster "Up" would get it without missing a beat. The film had a wonderful balance of comedy, drama and adventure interwoven into a terrific story about realizing your dreams. And while the film was most likely the best-reviewed film of 2009, I have a feeling that Pixar, yet again, will have to suffice with an award for Best Animated Feature, which is a complete injustice. "Up in the Air" will take home awards in the writing and possibly acting areas, but not Best Picture as it is more character than plot-driven. "Precious" started off strong, but peaked far too early for its own good (this will be another one that nabs an award or two for its acting). "Avatar" may be the most popular, but it's not Best Picture material (plus, I'm sure many a voter is jealous of Jimmy 'King of the World' Cameron's success). The same goes for "The Blind Side". "An Education" may not be known well-enough to nab the top prize, while the likes of "Trek", "Basterds" and "District 9" should be happy enough with a nomination.

This leaves Kathryn Bigelow's knockout war drama "The Hurt Locker", to be the frontrunner for Best Picture. With its raw honesty, relentless intensity and apolitical stance on the quagmire in Irag, "Locker" is certainly worthy of the award.  Many feel that Hollywood might not be ready to reward a grim, low-grossing ($13 million to date) independent film set during one of our current conflicts, and who knows? They just might play it safe and go with "Up In the Air". But if you look back to the 1978 (The Deer Hunter) and 1986 (Platoon) Academy Award ceremonies, being a heavy-duty drama set in or around a controversial war didn't prove to be much of a stumbling block during awards season.  

Should win: Up
Will win: The Hurt Locker

Next Bond film on hold due to MGM Sale

Dark Horizons is reporting that due to issues surrounding the pending sale of Metro Goldwyn Mayer, the next James Bond film is currently on hold. The film was scheduled to begin production late this year for a 2011 release. The last two entries in the long-running franchise, 2006's "Casino Royale" and 2008's "Quantum of Solace" were co-financed by Sony Pictures.

Here's hoping that the delay will allow the screenwriters of the new film to polish their work to match or come close to the level that the screenplay for "Royale" had. A super-rushed production on "Solace" no doubt hampered the script for that film (at least I would like to think it did).

2009 Producers Guild Award Nominations announced: Sci-Fi Geeks Rejoice!

The Producers Guild of America have announced their nominees for this year's award ceremony. The winner will be announced on January 24th. 13 of the past 20 films that have won the PGA award for Best Picture have gone on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.





The nominees are:

Avatar
An Education
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up In The Air

While there are some obvious choices in there, such as "Up In the Air", "Precious", "Invictus" (the second least deserving of the lot) and "The Hurt Locker" (which will most likely win), I'm a bit surprised by the strong presence of science-fiction in the mix: "Avatar" (my least favorite of the group), "District 9" and "Star Trek". Avatar shouldn't come as a big surprise given how well the film has done at the box office and with a majority of film critics, but I would never have guessed that the Guild would place three sci-fi films in the running given how little consideration the genre has been given over the past few decades by the Academy in general. Don't get me wrong, I am more than happy to see both "Trek" and "District 9" getting some nomination love. They're both great films. I just thought that come award ceremony time, both would probably be overlooked.

How nice it is to be wrong.

Weekend Box Office: 2010 begins with a bang

The New Year's holiday box office exploded over the weekend, with holdovers once again pulling in huge crowds of all ages.

Taking top spot for a third weekend, James Cameron's 3-D juggernaut "Avatar" pulled in an estimated $68.3 million for nearly $353 million. Next weekend will no doubt see the runaway grosses curtailed somewhat as the holidays are over and kids are returning to school, but that doesn't mean the movie won't still command the box office for the next couple of weeks. With no new big films on the horizon until mid-January, Cameron's film should remain right where it is.

Combined with its overseas gross, Cameron's uber-expensive blockbuster is about to join the exclusive billion dollar club, one that the director's last fictional film, 1997's "Titanic" comfortably sits atop of. Whether "Avatar" dethrones "Titanic" is anyone's guess. What is for certain is that "Avatar" will pass "The Dark Knight", "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" and "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" to comfortably sit at number two (pre-inflation) when all is said and done.

Second place went to Warner's "Sherlock Holmes" with an estimated $39 million for a $141 million gross to date. Watch for a domestic gross north of $200 million for Guy Ritchie's action-oriented update of the legendary sleuth when all is said and done, which should lock a sequel in place for 2012. The huge haul for "Holmes" also caps off a great year for Warner Brothers, who had four blockbuster films: "Holmes", "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince", "The Hangover" and the sleeper of 2009, "The Blind Side".

Speaking of the latter, the Sandra Bullock hit pulled in another $13 million to bring its gross up to $210 million to date. Don't be too surprised to see this film taking one of the coveted ten spots for Best Picture when the Academy Award nominations are announced, which will fuel its incredible box office run even more.

Third place went to the "Alvin and the Chipmunks" sequel (sorry, squeakuel) with an estimated $37 million and a twelve-day haul of $158 million. The film should wind up with a gross near or equal to the 2007 original's $217 million domestic take.

Fourth place went to the Meryl Streep romantic comedy "It's Complicated" with $19 million and an estimated 10-day gross of $59 million. As mentioned previously, adults tend not to rush out to films right away, which gives films aimed directly at them legs at the box office (providing that the movies are good, that is). Witness the run for "The Blind Side". I'm pretty sure that the majority of that film's audience is over 25. If word-of-mouth keeps up, watch for Nancy Meyers' film to end its run with close to $100 million in the till.

Sixth spot went to the George Clooney comedy/drama "Up in the Air", which pulled in $11 million, roughly what it pulled in during Christmas weekend, for an estimated gross of $45 million to date. As with "It's Complicated" and "The Blind Side", adults are taking their time to check out the film instead of rushing out all at once to see what all the fuss is about. The upcoming Oscars should help the grosses move along just fine over the next few weeks.

Seventh spot went to Disney's "The Princess and the Frog" with an estimated $11 million for an overall gross of $87 million. The film should hit the $110 million mark before the end of its run, but Disney must be a bit disappointed that the film hasn't performed better at the North America box office.

The remainder of the top ten is as follows: "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" with $5 million ($24.5 mil to date), "Invictus" with $4 million and a $32 million estimated gross, while the musical dud "Nine" once again brought up the rear with an estimated $3.8 million and a paltry $14 million gross to date.

My Favorite and Least Favorite Films of 2009

Let's face facts: 2009 was a pretty shitty year for movies. I don't care what the box office totals dictate, there weren't enough movies of quality to make me say that it was an okay year at best. Sure, there were great films out there. More often than not, though, mediocrity ruled the day. Now, a lot of people are okay with mediocrity. Witness the stellar grosses on "The Hangover", "Taken", "The Blind Side" and "Avatar" (Yeah, I called "Avatar" mediocre. It's my site. Don't like it? Blow.).

The following list are my favorite, and not so favorite, films of 2009. I refuse to use the terms "Best" and "Worst" because 1) no one critic's list is the final word on what is good and what is not and 2) I'm sure there are some fantastic movies playing out there that I haven't seen. And while I am pretty sure there are films that sucked more than films 3-10 on my least favorite list, I am also pretty sure that there isn't anything worse than "Transformers 2" or "G.I. Joe". If there is, I don't want to know about it.

My faves of 2009:

1. Up (Pixar/Disney)

The best studio in Hollywood (Pixar, not Disney) caps off a near-perfect decade with this wonderfully entertaining comedy adventure that features the year’s oddest couple, a terrific message about never giving up on your dreams as well as what may be the most moving sequence ever to appear in an animated feature released by the Mouse House.

2. The Hurt Locker (Summit Entertainment)

The problem with so many war films is that the filmmaker’s political beliefs get in the way of their storytelling. Not so with Kathryn Bigelow’s intense, exhilarating account of thirty days in the lives of a bomb disposal unit stationed in Iraq. Jeremy Renner and Anthony Mackie give remarkable performances in a film that manages to show the horrors of war and honor those who deal with it on a regular basis without shoving a message down our throats in the process.

3. Up in the Air (Paramount Pictures)

Jason Reitman takes another major leap forward as a filmmaker with this terrific –and timely- comedy/drama, made even better thanks to a trio of award-worthy performances from George Clooney, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick. Many were turned off by the somewhat unlikeable characters and third act. It’s okay. They can go take solace in safety-scissor films like “The Blind Side” or “Avatar” if they like (just teasing, kids).

4. Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein Company/Universal)

Quentin Tarantino’s bloody good revenge film set during World War II isn’t all that different than his previous films, and that is definitely a good thing. Who would have thought that “Hostel” director Eli Roth would be responsible for one of 2009’s funniest scenes?

5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (20th Century Fox)

Wes Anderson goes animated for his latest feature, a terrifically funny adaptation of the Roald Dahl children’s novel. Employing stop-motion animation, Anderson’s unique filmmaking style suits the animation genre wonderfully, nicely supported by the voice talents of George Clooney, Meryl Streep, Bill Murray, Willem DaFoe and Michael Gambon. You wrote a bad song, Petey, a bad song!

6. Star Trek (Paramount Pictures)

Who would have thought that the man who brought us “Felicity” and “Alias” would be responsible for bringing “Star Trek” back from the franchise dead? Well, that is exactly what J.J. Abrams did with this origin story set in an alternate timeline. The rare big-budget event film that delivered everything it promised and more. The next installment can’t come soon enough.

7. Adventureland (Miramax Pictures)

Greg Mottola’s excellent coming-of-age in the late ‘80s tale is partly based on his late teen years, and is one that anyone who grew up then can relate to. Miramax Pictures royally screwed up this film’s release last spring, attempting to sell it as the next “Superbad”. It’s anything but: it’s better.

8. District 9 (Tri-Star Pictures)

Abandoned aliens living in Johannesburg provide the premise for one of the more intelligent and engrossing science-fiction films to have come out of Hollywood in quite some time. Neil Blomkamp’s debut feature might turn into a standard action film during its final half hour, but by that point you’ll find yourself too immersed in the characters and story to care.

9. (500) Days of Summer (Fox Searchlight)

The romantic comedy is given a fresh spin in this frequently funny, often hilarious, film from director Marc Webb. Webb’s unique approach to the story, coupled with winning chemistry from leads Zooey Deschanel and Joseph Gordon Levitt, help offset this film from the rest of the indie love story pack.

10. Anitchrist (IFC Films)

I know that the latest Lars Von Trier cinematic “love-in” will probably land on more worst than best ten lists, and I can easily see why: this is one punishing movie experience. But in a year where people are considering the visually stunning but pedestrian “Avatar” as the second coming of cinema, I am only more than happy to put myself through Lars’ onscreen therapy. At least I felt something while I was watching it.

Runner ups: Coraline, State of Play, Still Walking, Capitalism-A Love Story, Where the Wild Things Are

My least favorite films of 2009:

1) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (Paramount/Dreamworks)

One doesn’t go into a “Transformers” movie looking for anything deep or substantial. You look for just enough of a coherent plot and tons of action, which the 2007 original had just enough of to make it work. This sequel could even manage those two things. Instead, we got 150 agonizing minutes of racial stereotypes, horrible comedy and action that was incomprehensible even by Michael Bay’s standards. Don’t bother asking what the film was about, I couldn’t tell you. In fact, I doubt Bay could even tell you. The embodiment of everything that is wrong today with American filmmaking.

2) G.I. Joe: the Rise of Cobra (Paramount)

Not quite the 24-frame per second abortion that “Transformers” was, but it was close. Channing Tatum wins the 2009 Pinocchio Award for least charismatic lead in Stephen Sommers’ $175 million live-action cartoon that felt longer than "Berlin Alexanderplatz". Yo, you blow, Joe.

3) Terminator: Salvation (Warner Brothers)

This could have been good: a film that dealt with the beginning of the Future War that was hinted at in each of the previous “Terminator” films. Instead, in the hands of McG, all we get is two hours of explosions, incomprehensible storytelling and a cast sleepwalking through it all. Hopefully, this series is now terminated.

4) X-Men Origins: Wolverine (20th Century Fox)

The good news is that this “X-Men” prequel wasn’t as awful as 2006’s “The Last Stand”. The bad news? It still sucked. Those franchise blades are getting pretty dull there, bub.

5) Land of the Lost (Universal Pictures)

As bad as the previews made it out to be, this laugh-free cinematic update of the equally crappy 1970s television show was like a waking nightmare. Hopefully someone at Universal Pictures got fired over approving production on this $100 million turkey. It’s time for a career intervention, Will Ferrell.

6) The Lovely Bones (Paramount/Dreamworks)

Peter Jackson stumbles horrifically with this uninvolving adaptation of Alice Siebold’s bestselling novel. Despite the best efforts of the cast (Stanley Tucci is suitably creepy in his role), the film lumbers on for two agonizing hours without the slightest bit of emotional involvement or payoff. Get back to Middle Earth, Peter. It’s where you belong.

7) Angels & Demons (Sony Pictures)

Tom Hanks got a better haircut for this follow up to the worst film of 2006, “The Da Vinci Code”, but that is probably the only improvement found in this silly sequel, complete with an ending worthy of an episode of “Scooby Doo”. Okay, this film was roughly five minutes shorter than “Code”, so I guess it had that going for it.

8) Funny People (Universal Pictures)

Judd Apatow’s Day Off.

9) Sunshine Cleaning (Overture Films)

A cloying independent film that crams practically every cliché you can think of into 95 minutes. A waste of a good cast and the viewer’s valuable time, this film is nothing more than a Lifetime Network film with widescreen framing.

10) Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks)

Another animated dud from Dreamworks Animation, this box office hit showed potential to be a fun riff on 1950s sci-fi B-movies, but never followed through. Chock full of stale jokes and somewhat uninspired voice acting, “Aliens” shows once again that no matter how much money they throw into a cartoon, they will never be mistaken for Pixar.